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Monday, 16 November 2015

G 20 Summit : world leaders met after paris attacks



Decoding G-20 summit : Turkey 2015   ......




The Group of Twenty or G-20 is a group of twenty largest economies of the world. It was established in 1999 in the wake of financial crisis of late 1997 and in response to the growing recognition that the key-emerging market countries were not adequately included in the process of global economic discussion and governance. The Group assumes significance as it represents 90 per cent of the global GDP and two-thirds of the world’s population.

With the conclusion of Antalya Summit 2015(Nov 15-16), the G-20 has adopted a comprehensive agenda, which revolves around three I’s – implementation, investment, and inclusiveness. Implementation of past commitments, boosting investment as a driver of growth and promoting inclusiveness in actions so that all can share the benefits.

Terrorism:

As the Paris attacks took over the G-20 summit's agenda, leaders of the member states vowed in a joint statement Monday to take a stronger stance against terrorism. The statement said ” We condemn, in the strongest possible terms, the heinous terrorist attacks in Paris on 13 November and in Ankara on 10 October. They are an unacceptable affront to all humanity. We reaffirm that terrorism cannot and should not be associated with any religion, nationality, civilization or ethnic group.”

The G20 has also emphasized its concern over the acute and growing flow of foreign terrorist fighters and the threat it poses for all states and resolved to tackle this through operational information sharing, border management and criminal justice response. The Group also reiterated their resolve to work together to prevent and suppress terrorist acts through increased international solidarity and cooperation, in full recognition of the UN’s central role.


Earlier Mr.Modi demanded that the G20 push for stronger coordinated global action for putting an end to finance supplies and communication channels of terrorists and an early adoption of the Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism but there is nothing concrete on terrorism as such except some bold announcements in the joint statement on fight against terrorism and asking the Financial Action Task Force to report back on the steps countries are taking to address the weaknesses identified to cut off terrorism-related financial flows.

It is also very important that all the response in view of  terrorist activities would look for solutions and in no way fuel the sense of alienation and vengeance among nationals of the country where terrorist organizations flourish.


Economic Takeout's:

Recognizing the fact that economic growth is uneven and continues to fall short of expectations, the Group has vowed to implement sound macroeconomic policies in a cooperative manner to achieve strong, sustainable and balanced growth. Against the concerns about the spillover effects of the unconventional policies, also raised by Mr.Modi, the Group pledged to carefully calibrate and clearly communicate their actions, to mitigate uncertainty, minimize negative spillovers and promote transparency. Inclusion of measures to support demand and structural reforms to lift growth, create jobs, promote inclusiveness and reduce inequalities, in the growth strategies would be crucial in fulfilling our commitments, the communiqué said.

The Group remains committed to achieve their ambition to lift collective G20 GDP by an additional 2 percent by 2018 as announced in Brisbane last year. For boosting investment, the Group has developed country specific investment strategies and an analysis of these strategies by the OECD indicates that it would contribute to lifting the aggregate G20 investment to GDP ratio, by an estimated 1-percentage point by 2018.

At a time when plurilateral trade agreements (like TPP) threatening the existence of multilateral trade system, the Group reaffirms the importance of WTO and committed themselves to ensure that all these regional, bilateral and plurilateral trade agreements are consistent under WTO rules. This declaration will definitely lower the concerns of the nations left out in plurilateral trade agreements.

In order to modernize the international tax rules to avoid cross border tax evasion, the Group has endorsed the OECD report on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting and urged all the member countries for its timely implementation. The Group has also expressed their commitment towards enhancing the transparency of their tax systems and to initiate information exchange on-request as well as to automatic exchange of information by 2017 or end-2018.

Although the communiqué talks about disappointment in the delay in implementing the IMF quota reforms agreed in 2010 but it is perhaps the first visible failure of G20. This has reduced the credibility of G-20 as a premium forum for international economic cooperation.


Sustainability Reassured :

In line with Mr.Modi’s call on the G20 to prioritize effective implementation of Sustainable Development Agenda 2030, the communiqué said, “We are strongly committed to implementing its outcomes to ensure that no-one is left behind in our efforts to eradicate poverty and build an inclusive and sustainable future for all.” In order to support sustainable development, the Group will focus on areas such as energy access, food security and nutrition, human resource development, quality infrastructure, financial inclusion and domestic resource mobilization. The communiqué has recognized private players has a strong role to play in poverty eradication and development and stressed the need for all stakeholders to work together in order to promote opportunities for low income people and communities to participate in markets as buyers, suppliers and consumers.

Earlier, speaking at BRICS leaders meeting, Mr.Narendra Modi sought a definite timeline before 2030 for reduction in cost of transferring money, a move that will help India, as it is the world's largest recipient of remittances. Though the communiqué talks about reducing the transaction cost to 5 percent from 7.5 percent but it is silent on a definite timeline.

In the field of energy, the Group has endorsed the G20 Energy Access Action Plan: Voluntary Collaboration on Energy Access, the first phase of which focuses on enhancing electricity access in Sub-Saharan Africa where the problem is most acute.


Climate Change:

Accepting climate change as one of the greatest challenges of our times, the communiqué said, ”We affirm that the Paris agreement should be fair, balanced, ambitious, durable and dynamic. We underscore our commitment to reaching an ambitious agreement in Paris that reflects the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in light of different national circumstances. We commit to work together for a successful outcome of the COP21.”


Refugee Crisis:

Recognizing the refugee crisis as global concern with major humanitarian, political, social and economic consequences, the Group has identified a need for a coordinated and comprehensive response to tackle this crisis, as well as its long-term consequences. The importance of political solutions to conflicts and increased cooperation for development has also been emphasized. But after the attacks in Paris, there is a fear that public opinion over refugee asylum in European countries would be hardened and it wont be easy for the authorities to make a bold accommodative decision.


Conclusion:

Albeit, the summit ended with all the positive statements but it is imperative for the meaningful existence of this group that honest efforts should be made with all sincerity to implement all decisions in letter and spirit. Else, G20 is bound to loose its charm and influence over the issues, which assumes global significance.

All eyes for the implementation of the measures included in the communiqué.



written by - Shobhit Anand

Monday, 25 May 2015

The Modi Saga ... One year in Office



                  The Modi Saga …. One year in Office

A year ago, Narendra Modi was sworn-in as the 15th Prime Minister of the world’s largest democracy and 67 year old Independent Nation. With a vote share of 31.4%, Modi led BJP clinched a landslide victory with 282 seats and formed a majority govt. after 30 years. The unprecedented victory was the reflection of aspirations of young India, having half the population under 25 years of age. It was the belief that change in govt. and Mr.Modi’s leadership will herald a new phase for this developing nation.

For those who voted for Mr.Modi, there are some important questions to ask - What has changed for them in this one year? Are they able to get better health facilities, better educational & employment opportunities, favorable business environment, corruption free bureaucracy, improved electricity, reservation in trains, improved rail and road connectivity and infrastructure etc.? Its true, one year is not enough to gauge the achievements of a ruling party, but its enough to chart out the course the govt. will take in the remaining years.

Undoubltedly, Mr.Modi’s leadership and NDA government has restored hope in India, which is the very basis of any transformation for the better. The article tries to locate the areas where the govt. has fared well and the areas where more political will & focus is required.


Bhutan to South Korea

For his policy of regional engagement & his vision of India as a significant player at the global stage, Mr.Modi has rightly earned laurels from all the quarters of the world. Since his first foreign visit to Bhutan in June 2014, Mr.Modi has visited 18 nations ending with South Korea on 19 May 2015. The energy pact between SAARC countries, unveiling of India’s new ACT EAST policy at ASEAN summit, power trade agreements with Nepal, BRICS bank inauguration, $ 35 billion investment from Japan over five years, the administrative arrangement on civil nuclear with US, uranium deal with Canada, Rafael deal with France were some of the major highlights of the diplomatic efforts, though with some attached caveats. Mr.Modi has been successful in providing fresh air to the suffocating foreign policy, saving Pakistan where the foreign policy still lies between the same old contours of dialogue or no dialogue. Surely, India is gradually carving out its own space at the global level and its perception among the global community has changed for better.

Swachh Bharat, Jan Dhan to Make in India

The govt. has launched several schemes for the purpose of financial inclusion and social welfare in the past one year. Bank A/c for everyone under Jan Dhan will enable the govt. to transfer the subsidy directly to the poor people’s account. Swachh Bharat, on the other hand aims to clean up India in Five Years and for his efforts on the swachhta mission, the Prime Minister must be congratulated. This drive of Clean India, Clear India has the potential to change the perception about Indian cities the world over.

Also, the launch of ‘Make in INDIA’ campaign drew on the curiosity of potential investors from all over the world. The efforts to put the manufacturing sector on a revival mode are not only welcome but are quintessential to provide jobs to the 113 million unemployed youth. It is also supposed to increase the manufacturing share of meagre 16% in India’s GDP, which is vital to be a developed nation.

Though, these schemes have not made much success on ground so far and have not achieved their objectives as yet but surely reflects the intent of the ruling party.

Coal to Land

The govt. has miserably failed to allay the fears of land owners in respect of the Land Bill introduced in the parliament. With the inclusion of terms like social infrastructure for land acquisition and exclusion of social impact assessment, govt. has stirred up a hornet’s nest. It is imperative to include all the stakeholders in the dialogue process to reach a conclusion, as land is a source of livelihood for 60% of India’s population.

The Govt. needs to be congratulated for the ratification of land-boundary agreement with Bangladesh, consensus on GST bill, and insurance act. The coal block & spectrum allocations fetched an amount of 2 lakh crore and 1.10 lakh crore respectively, reflecting the efficient management policies for natural resources and bringing monetary resources to the govt. to be a leading spender for kick starting the economy. The formation of NITI Aayog replacing the planning commission was a bold move, but it is to be seen that how the Aayog working will be different from its predecessor.


Current Account to Fiscal Deficit

The govt. has succeeded in containing the CAD to 1.9 percent of GDP during the first half of 2014-15 and fiscal deficit to 4.1 percent of GDP in the previous financial year. Although, considering the lower investment trend in the economy, the oil prices going up and the rise in demand for gold, it would be a major task for the govt. to contain these two economic parameters.

Also, govt. has been able to maintain the positive outlook about the Indian economy so far, translating the same into FDI of $ 28 billion the previous financial year and decent foreign reserves at $ 353 billion.

Weaker Spots

Education : Difficult jobs need experts with experiences and related knowledge in the field. The appointment of an expert as the HRD Minister could have helped the dismal state of education sector. We have not seen any major initiative by the HRD ministry even at a time when there is a clamor to focus on education to benefit from demographic dividend. With budgetary cuts for Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan, Mid Day Meal Scheme etc, it would be interesting to see how govt. moves forward on agendas like skill India.

Plural Society : Mr.Modi, by his silence, has allowed various elements to set the agenda for public discourse. Secularism and Social justice are two important pillars for any progressive democracy. From Ashoka to Akbar, Gandhi to Bhagat Singh, only those leaders became the leaders of the masses, who believed in extending religious tolerance to people of different faiths. And support of masses are very much required for any nation to achieve its defined targets and goals. Hope, Mr.Modi will be more proactive and will follow his idol Swami Vivekananda on the idea of plural society.

Budgetary Cuts : With cuts in ministries like Women and Child Development, Science and Technology, Ministry of Health, it seems the govt. is not concerned about the malnutrition prevalent among children and pregnant mothers, low level of research in field of science and inadequate infrastructure in the health sector.

Agriculture : The sector is in a bad shape. Growth has come down to 1.1 percent from 3.7 percent in 2014. Farmer's suicide has become a trend and govt. inability to provide a relief has also become the norm of the day. The assertiveness this govt. has shown in helping Nepal to overcome the distress caused by the earthquake is appreciable beyond words but I strongly believe that even half the efforts could have saved many farmers and can still bring a huge relief to the farmers who are currently contemplating suicide in the next few days.

Political Remarks : The Prime Minister belongs to the nation and the nation involves all Indians even if they are the part of Opposition. Extending respect to the political opponents only increases the amount of respect among citizens for the Prime Minister. In his recent remarks in China and S.Korea, that Indians were ashamed of being born in India before his govt. came to power, does not bode well for a Prime Minister and is totally unbecoming of a Prime Minister. Many leaders and soldiers have laid down their lives just for the pride of their nation, such statements can only bring insult to their spirit of nationalism.


We must congratulate Mr.Modi and his team for instilling faith in citizens that our nation is moving forward with purposeful objectives and in a definite direction. Hope, the remaining years of 16th Lok Sabha under Mr.Modi’s leadership will show a brighter side of cooperative federalism and will do justice – social, economical, political – to all the citizens of this proud nation.

Regards
Shobhit Anand
A common citizen

Thursday, 6 November 2014

E-Retail Is The Future Or MayBe Not!!

Clicks Aren't Hurting Bricks, For Now





Brick-and-mortar stores are feeling the heat from e-commerce players only in a few categories, but that doesn't mean they can become complacent...

 

About a year ago, many -that included some of India's largest organized retailers -were in near denial that India would feel the impact of e-tailing in the near future. Today, the pendulum has swung to the other extreme. Some of India's old est and largest brick-and-mortar retailers believe that the newly arrived e-tailers are their biggest threat now. Various associations that represent the interests of India's over 16-million independ ent retailers are now actively lobbying against etailers, including India's homegrown ones. The same associations had long reserved their vitriol only for multinational retailers despite the fact that the top-three organized retail businesses in India, each having revenues in excess of `15,000 crore in 2014, are Indian owned while the largest multinational retailer in India is struggling to cross even `1,000 crore in revenues. India's current consumer spending on merchandise (and hence the size of India's retail market) is about $525 billion. If India sees a real compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in the next 10 years, and the consumer price in flation remains around 6% CAGR in the same period, India's merchandise retail spending will touch about $1,100 billion by 2020, and $2,100 billion by 2025. It is easy to see what is driving this strong growth in retail consumption -a relatively young population, convergence in lifestyle aspirations across urban and rural India and rise of dual (or multiple) income households especially in urban India. 
 
 
Consumption Patterns
To better understand the current and future impact of e-tail on India's physical retailers, it is important to gain a measure of what India is currently consuming and how that consumption is split between rural and urban populations.

As the chart Retail Consumption Across Key Categories shows, even 10 years from now, almost two-thirds of India's retail spending (not total consumer spending because that also includes services such as housing, healthcare, transportation, education etc) is on food, followed by about 9% on apparel, then jewellery, and then consumer electronics, including mobile handsets.


Of this retail spending, rural India (spread across over 6,60,000 villages) accounts for almost 52%. Even by 2025, rural spending would still account for 43% of spending (see Distribution of Consumer Goods Spending). India will see very strong growth in all channels of retail: the traditional independents, the modern corporatized chains, and e-tailing not only in the coming 10 years but indeed, even much beyond that. Those who fear for the demise of traditional retail from corporatized retail (whether Indian or foreign owned) and now from e-tail will do well to note that Indians who are currently consuming merchandise worth $479 billion from independent mom-and-pop stores will consume more than four times (goods worth about $2,125 billion) from these stores by 2025. The corporatized retailers do not have much to fear either and they are likely to increase their own collective revenues (only from physical stores) from about $46 billion today to over $100 billion (excluding e-tail) by 2020 and perhaps over $345 billion (physical retail and e-tail) by 2025.

As far as e-tailing is concerned, notwithstanding its immense appeal for the metros and other parts of urban India, and notwithstanding its visible impact in select categories such as mobile phones and consumer durables, it will continue to have a fairly small share of the overall retail spending in India even after 10 years.

Negligible Share
To put simply, if seen only from the perspective of a few categories such as consumer electronics, apparel and footwear, furniture and home furnishings, and a few others (and that too largely in the top 15-20 cities and for products targeted towards the middle and upper-middle-income socio-economic strata), there is already a measurable impact of e-tail channel on physical stores in 2014. And no doubt, this will become more significant by 2025. However, if seen from the overall consumer spending perspective, the share of the e-tail channel by 2020 is expected to be around 3% on a net sales value (and perhaps 4% by gross merchandise value) and no more than 10% by 2025.

Having said this, it is important for physical retailers (especially those located in these top 15-20 cities) to make a serious effort to upgrade themselves. The upgrade should include improvements in the physical look and feel of the stores, offering a better shopping experience to consumers, training and retraining of store staff to offer better services, and aligning their merchandise more sharply to their specific customer profiles.
Physical retailers (independent ones) should also put more effort in knowing their consumer better and deploy basic technology to connect with them for sharing with them information on new arrivals and promotions.This connect could be even through SMS and then wherever possible, through e-mails.Such measures, as their e-commerce rivals have shown, work wonders.

Ref: Article written by Arvind Singhal , Chairman & Managing director of Technopak, a Retail Consultancy, published in ET Magazine.

Wednesday, 5 November 2014

Hey Watchout : Many More Big Billion Day Sales To Come, So Let`s Pad Up!!


Here's What You Can Learn from the Flipkart Octoberfest




Its been exactly a month, Flipkart's Big Billion Day sale on October 6 left scores of shoppers disgruntled for various reasons.At the same time, there were lakhs of people who cashed in on some really sweet deals. Hits and misses aside, Flipkart's October Revolution offers several learnings for consumers, who want to be better prepared to take advantage of more such shopping bonanzas coming up in future.

 

Discount Offered may not be Yours
Thousands of miffed customers discovered that their orders had not been executed. For every order that was placed, there were scores of unhappy consumers. There are too many people jostling for the same goods. According to Flipkart, it received a billion hits, while the number of people who actually managed to get their hands on items on offer was just 1.5 million.

In other words, one in every 600 visitors to the site managed to shop. So, the advertised discount may not really be yours. You may be well prepared with all your payment details at hand, but you can never be sure you'll really get the stuff you want at the discounted price. Take the case of the Xiaomi phones launched a few weeks ago. They were gone in less than 3 seconds. When there are millions competing against you, the probability of you making a purchase is extremely low.


Save Time: Register & Use Wallets
Most people who got their hands on the discounted products were mission-ready at 8 am sharp -the moment the sale began -on Monday . If you were among them and still missed out, chances are you did not have a registered account with the e-tailer or you did not have a registered payment account (Flipkart Wallet). While you were entering your creditdebit card details, those with registered accounts were hitting the buy button. If you want to grab future offers, having an e-wallet that you top up beforehand can speed up the checkout process. Also, browse the site beforehand, pick out the items that you are really keen on, and place them on a separate `wishlist' that the site lets you create. That way , you can quickly and easily access your top picks and check whether they have been discounted deeply enough.



Deal on Offer may not be the Best
Order frustration was not the only reason prospective buyers were unhappy. Many customers bought goods on Flipkart only to learn later that rivals Snapdeal and Amazon were offering them at bigger discounts.
For instance, a MacBook Air that was being sold on Flipkart for ` . 54,000 was priced at `. 50,000 on Snapdeal. It is customary for rival platforms to come up with their own deals when a peer announces a sale. So the next time there is such a sale and you have set your eyes on a specific product, compare its price on other platforms before you click on buy. If you have accounts on several platforms, comparing prices and purchasing the cheaper item becomes easier.


No Refunds or Exchange During Sale
Most sales, whether offline or online, have different rules than those that apply to normal purchases. TV ads of online retailers say that returning a product is very easy, but not if you have purchased it during a sale. If you have second thoughts about a purchase, you won't get a refund or even be allowed to exchange the product (unless it is faulty). So, control impulse buying during such sales. You cannot even cancel the order. You cannot get store credit.

All this was listed in the terms and conditions on Flipkart's website. Of course there may not be enough time to go through these before you click accept.Try to Use Cash on Delivery

If cancelled orders weren't bad enough, spare a thought for buyers who may still be waiting for their refunds.
Online retailers are very prompt but refunds can still take up to 1-2 days to reflect in your account.This can be quite a bother, especially if you have been denied the discount.To avoid this, choose the cash on delivery (COD) option. Even if you don't get the goods you order, at least you won't have to lock your money up.

Don't Lose Sight of Other Promos
10% 40% Finally, often there are ex 20% clusive launches on the day of sale. In the rush to benefit from the discounts on offer, customers tend to miss out on these launches. For instance, Huawei launched it Honor 6 mobile phone exclusively on Flipkart on 6 October. Perhaps in a bid to cash in on the discounted first-generation Moto X offering, you missed out on a phone that could have otherwise been your preferred choice. And now, you cannot exchange it.








Watch out for big launches during a sale. You might get more value from the new product than from a discounted offering. 

 


Ref: An ET Article